报告题目: A Stochastic Framework for Relibility and Sensitivity Analysis of Large Scale Water Distribution Systems

报 告 人：Hector Jensen，智利圣玛丽亚理工大学土木系教授，中国国家外国专家局高端外国专家

主 持 人：陈建兵教授、彭勇波教授

时    间：2022年7月8日（星期五）9:00 - 10:15 A.M.

A STOCHASTIC FRAMEWORK FOR RELIBILITY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF LARGE SCALE WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

ABSTRACT

The design of efficient and robust utility networks, such as water distribution systems, is an essential task in modern society. In fact, there is an increasing demand for these systems to be highly reliable in their operations.  In this context, the level to which the network is able to provide the required service needs to be assessed by taking into account uncertain conditions. In this lecture the hydraulic performance assessment of large scale water distribution networks in presence of uncertainty is considered. In this context, the network performance assessment is referred to its reliability and sensitivity. The estimation of the network reliability and sensitivity is performed by an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Nodal demands, nodal heads, pipe coefficients, water level of storage tanks, and volume of water pumped to tanks are modeled as uncertain parameters with different levels of variability. Failure is assumed to occur when the pressure of some node is lower than a minimum allowable value. The effectiveness of the proposed stochastic framework is demonstrated with the analysis of a real high dimensional water distribution systems consisting of a large number of nodes and pipes (of the order of thousands). The methodology gives an important insight into the performance, reliability and sensitivity of complex utility networks. The stochastic framework can be extended to solve other practical problems associated with utility networks such as detection-related problems.