工程可靠性与随机力学国际联合研究中心

2025年第17期（总第109期）学术报告

工程力学研究中心第64期学术报告

文远讲坛331期

报告主题

TOPIC

面向土木工程中具有不确定性意识、基于数据的决策制定

Towards Uncertainty-Aware, Data-Informed Decision-Making in Civil Engineering

报告人

SPEAKER

Prof. Daniel Straub

Professor, Technical University Munich, München, GermanyRecipient of the

 C.Allen Cornell Award, Member of the Executive Committee of IASSAR

报告时间

TIME

2025年10月28日（周二）上午10:30-11:30

报告地点

VENUE

同济大学土木大楼 A804

主持人

CHAIR

彭勇波教授、陈建兵教授

联系人：牛立志

报告摘要

Abstract

Modern civil engineering faces increasing demands for safety, sustainability, and resilience. To meet these challenges, engineers must make informed decisions under uncertainty, leveraging both predictive models and data. While traditional engineering approaches have focused on deterministic modeling, the engineering community is starting to realize the importance of explicitly incorporate uncertainty and use data to guide decisions throughout the lifecycle of infrastructure systems.

In this talk, I will present how formal decision analysis can enhance the use of engineering predictions in practice and support data-informed decision making. I will emphasize the importance of explicitly addressing uncertainty and the sequential nature of decision-making, e.g., by means of probabilistic digital twins. Sensitivity analysis will be discussed as a key tool for understanding model behavior and communicating limitations. These concepts will be illustrated through practical applications, including flood risk planning, construction, infrastructure development and predictive maintenance strategies.

报告人简介

Speaker Bio

Professor Straub develops and teaches risk and reliability analysis for engineering systems. His research focuses on physics-based and data-driven models and methods for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. A core interest of Professor Straub lies in the use of dynamic information (e.g. from sensors and monitoring systems) for risk assessment. This includes developing algorithms for rare (extreme) events and quantifying the value of information from monitoring systems. He is also working on managing risk and reliability of complex and autonomous systems. His portfolio of research and industry consulting includes applications to structural design and assessment, offshore and marine engineering, geotechnical engineering, natural hazards, automotive as well as aero- and astronautics.

Professor Straub received his civil engineering degree in 2000 and his PhD in 2004 from ETH Zürich. He subsequently worked at University of California, Berkeley, before joining TUM in 2008. Prof. Straub is also active as a consultant to the industry. Professor Straub has executive roles in international bodies in the field of engineering risk and is a frequent keynote speaker at major conferences. He is also an Honorary Professor at the University of Aberdeen, UK. He had been the Chairman of the IFIP WG 7.5 Reliability and Optimization of Structural Systems, member of the international Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS), Board of Directors of Civil Engineering Risk and Reliability Association (CERRA), and is now the member of the Executive Board of the International Association for Structural Safety and Reliability (IASSAR). He is the Associate Editor of the ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, and serves in the Editorial Boards of many journals, including Structural Safety, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, etc. He received many award, including the IASSAR Early Achievement Research Award in 2013 and the C. Allen Cornell Award by CERRA in 2023, which is presented every four years by the Civil Engineering Risk and Reliability Association to honor outstanding achievements in the science and application of risk and reliability theory in civil engineering.