工程可靠性与随机力学国际联合研究中心

2025年第21期（总第113期）学术报告

工程力学研究中心第68期学术报告

文远讲坛336期

报告主题

TOPIC

利用数据进行可靠度更新的贝叶斯建模

Bayesian Modeling for Reliability Updating using Data

报告人

SPEAKER

Prof. Hector Jensen

智利费德里科圣玛利亚理工大学教授

科技部高端外国专家

报告时间

TIME

2025年11月28日（周五）下午15:30-16:30

报告地点

VENUE

同济大学土木大楼 A305

主持人

CHAIR

陈建兵教授、彭勇波教授

联系人：牛立志

报告内容

Abstract

A two-phase approach for updating the first-passage probability of structural dynamical systems under stochastic excitation is presented. The method is formulated within the framework of Bayesian updating combined with structural reliability techniques. Both, model updating and reliability updating are recast as standard reliability problems, solved using an advanced simulation method such as subset simulation with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. In Phase I, samples from the updated distribution are generated, while Phase II estimates the updated first-passage probability and produces the associated failure samples. In both phases, the intermediate simulation levels provide additional insights into system performance as a byproduct of the solution process. Since the method imposes no theoretical restrictions on the reliability updating problem, and subset simulation demonstrates both robustness and scalability, the approach can potentially address a wide range of problems in stochastic structural dynamics. The capabilities of the proposed framework are illustrated through two applications. Numerical results show that the method effectively leverages available measurements for structural reliability assessment. In all cases, the critical region of the failure domain under the updated distribution is satisfactorily explored using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo–based subset simulation. Based on the results of this study, the proposed approach can be regarded as a promising alternative for updating the first-passage probability of structural dynamical systems under stochastic excitation. Moreover, given the generality of the formulation, its applicability extends beyond the field of stochastic structural dynamics.

报告人简介

Speaker Bio

Hector Jensen is a Professor Civil Engineering at the Santa Maria Technical University, Valparaiso, Chile, and Professor of Mechanical Engineering at the Catholic University of Chile, Santiago. Chile. He is a Mathematician Civil Engineer from the University of Chile, and he received his PhD in Applied Mechanics from the California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Pasadena, USA. His research interests include Computational Stochastic Mechanics, Advanced Simulation Methods, Robust and Reliability-Based Optimization, Risk and Sensitivity Analysis, Fuzzy Analysis, Finite Element Analysis, Dynamic Sub-structuring, and Bayesian Model Updating. He has been visiting professor in several American and European universities, including University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA), California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), University of Michigan (UM), University of Innsbruck, etc. He has published numerous journal and conference papers, as well as book chapters in areas of his expertise. In addition, a book that deals with the application of reduced-order models to complex simulation-based problems has been published by Springer in 2019 (Sub-Structure Coupling for Dynamic Analysis: Application to Complex Simulation-Based Problems Involving Uncertainty). He is preparing a new book related to the Reliability, Sensitivity and Optimization of Linear Structural Systems under Stochastic Gaussian Excitation based on Advanced Simulation Techniques. He has been invited to give lectures, keynotes, semi-plenary and plenary lectures in a number of universities and international conferences. He is member of the editorial board of several journals, and he has been guest editor of different Journals, including Computers and Structures, Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing and Reliability Engineering and System Safety. He is also member of the scientific committee of many international conferences and reviewer of different journals. In 2018 he was selected by the Recruitment Program of High-end Foreign Experts of the State Administration of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. He is listed among the top 2% scientists globally by the Stanford/Elsevier ranking list in Civil Engineering and Applied Mathematics.