工程可靠性与随机力学国际联合研究中心

2025年第24期（总第116期）学术报告

工程力学研究中心第71期学术报告

文远讲坛339期

报告主题

TOPIC

理解概率和统计的概念：它们如何帮助我们，又有哪些局限性？

Understanding the concepts of probability and statistics:
how do they help us and what are the limitations？

报告人

SPEAKER

Prof. Michael Beer

-Head of the Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz Universität Hannover

-President of the European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA)，Germany

报告时间

TIME

2025年12月10日（周三）下午15:00-16:30

报告地点

VENUE

同济大学土木大楼 A305

主持人

CHAIR

陈建兵教授、彭勇波教授

联系人：牛立志

报告内容

Abstract

Probability theory and mathematical statistics provide most essential tools and technologies for handling uncertainties in engineering analyses. However, their use and application require a clear understanding of the theoretical background and of the features and limitations of the tools and technologies. This lecture will recall the key concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics with focus on the most important features and limitations. Conceptually, the four avenues to probability are discussed to refresh the correct understanding of the models in relation to the assumptions behind. The importance of dependencies is highlighted by a simple yet impressive example. Distribution models are discussed. A structured overview on the field of mathematical statistics is provided. Selected elements from descriptive and inferential statistics are demonstrated by means of examples, with emphasis on feature extraction. It is shown, by way of an example, how large the discrepancies between reality, a sample and statistical conclusions can be in practical cases.

报告人简介

Speaker Bio

Michael Beer is Professor and Head of the Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Germany. He is also part time Professor at the University of Liverpool and guest Professor at Tongji University and the University of Science and Technology Beijing, China. He obtained a doctoral degree from Technical University Dresden, Germany, and worked for Rice University, National University of Singapore, and the University of Liverpool, UK. Dr. Beer’s research is focused on uncertainty quantification in engineering with emphasis on imprecise probabilities. Dr. Beer is Editor in Chief of the ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A Civil Engineering and Part B Mechanical Engineering. He is also Editor in Chief (joint) of the Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering, and Associate Editor of Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing as well as Information Sciences. He has won several awards including the Alfredo Ang Award on Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure of ASCE. Dr. Beer is the Chairman of the European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA), President-elect of the International Safety and Reliability Association (IASSAR), and a Co-Chair of Risk and Resilience Measurements Committee (RRMC), Infrastructure Resilience Division (IRD), ASCE. He is serving on the Executive Board of the European Association of Structural Dynamics (EASD), and on the Board of Directors of the International Association for Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (IAPSAM). He is a Fellow of the Alexander von Humboldt-Foundation and a Member of ASCE (EMI), ASME, CERRA, IACM and GACM.